totient | a prediction comes to pass

Way back in 2011 I made a post about how SpaceX's engine out capability worked with their plans to reuse rockets. Since that time they have had 110 launches, 75 booster landings and, as far as anyone knows, three engine out events. The first of these was shortly after I made my post and before they were even trying to land boosters. The second was near the end of the boost phase and supposedly wasn't the cause of the subsequent landing failure, though now I have to wonder. The third was a couple of weeks ago and only in the last few days have we learned that it happened and was the cause of the first SpaceX landing failure since the previous engine out event.

Before these last two engine outs, landing failures were much more common. I suspect that going forward, engine outs are going to be the primary cause of booster loss for SpaceX.

One fascinating tidbit is that SpaceX isn't slowing down their launch cadence any after engine outs. They're no big deal! It's one thing to say they'll be no big deal before they've happened but quite another to keep your customers from thinking otherwise once they do.