a political post for a change

[totient]

Here's a gamble I'd take if I were Barack Obama.

I'd agree to seat Florida and Michigan according to the rules the Republicans are applying to those states, which is that the number of delegates is reduced by 50%. This is totally in line with the rest of the Democratic party's rules: the later your primary is, the more delegates you get.

The reason to take this gamble is what happens if Michigan gets their do-over. Sure, it's fair. But Hillary probably wins it and because it's in June it gets a disproportionately high number of delegates.

Better to give her back 20 delegates or so than to risk giving her 50. And the PR points might make those numbers back in Pennsylvania.

Comments

[cos]

I don't understand your reasoning.

1. Michigan isn't going to have a new election. Unfortunate, but pretty solidly true by now, that both the state legislature and the Michigan Democratic Party have decided not to do it (state leg decided not to fund it, Michigan dems then decided against trying a privately funded election).

2. Even if they did: "because it's in June it gets a disproportionately high number of delegates." - I've never heard of any such thing. Source?

3. Since Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan, there is absolutely no way the Michigan delegation will be allowed to be seated as the election results determined. It would very rightly be seen as unfair and illegitimate.

[palmwiz.livejournal.com]

Source?

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/13/latecomers_get_more_delegate_sway/

[jered]

That article says that the DNC awarded some states extra delegates so that they wouldn't move their date. Michigan wasn't awarded any, because they did. How do you figure that if they were seated, the DNC would give them a bonus for mucking up the whole works?

[palmwiz.livejournal.com]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/12/02/democratic-primary-rules/ makes it look like the process is automatic.

[cos]

That does not sound like it would apply to states that refused to move their dates. I think if they wanted bonus delegates from a do-over after already having run their primaries on rulebreaking dates, they'd have to ask the rules committee for a ruling at the convention, but it seems very unlikely they'd get them.

Though, as I said, both Florida and Michigan have pretty much ruled out do-overs by now, anyway.

[deguspice.livejournal.com]

I don't think Hillary would win in Michigan if there was another primary. 40% of the democrats voted for "none of the above". That's a lot of people standing in line just to vote against her (and Kucinich, Dodd, and Gravel). I suspect more than the 40% would show up if their candidate was running.