phi

I have the strong impression that the dominant factor in the Senate races is going to be what happens in the Presidential race. If Trump is the GOP nominee, from what I've heard, the GOP anticipates a high probability of losing the Senate and maybe even the House in the impending electoral disaster. I've also heard that Majority Leader McConnell has already given permission for any GOP Senator running for re-election to run ads against Trump should he be the nominee-- a privilege generally only given to GOP Senators running in deep blue states. There's also the factor of an indictment of Hillary Clinton coming down over her email server, which could skew Congressional results the other way; apparently her sysadmin has been given immunity to testify. Even if the Department of Justice refuses to indict her given the FBI recommendation, the FBI top brass may resign in protest, which would be not as damaging as an indictment but damaging nonetheless.